Послано Орех Дин Декабрь 15, 1999 - 09:24:57:
Golan Giveaway - Radicalization of Palestinian Demands and Terror:
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 12:48:46 +0200
From: Yoram Ettinger
1. Dr. Aharon Fein, President of Tazpit Research, known for his long streak of accurate polls in defiance of conventions, just concluded a comprehensive poll among Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. IT SHEDS LIGHT ON ANOTHER CASE OF THE ISRAELI PEOPLE APPROACHING A CRITICAL REFERENDUM WITHOUT BEING EQUIPPED THE THE PROPER DATA.
2. In response to a question: "What would be the impact, on Palestinian demands, of a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan?" The surveyed Palestinian population stated - on block as would be expected - that such an Israeli withdrawal would radicalize Palestinian demands for a full Israeli withdrawal from Judea & Samaria as well as the re-division of Jerusalem. Palestinians would not wish to be the only Arab party receiving less than a full Israeli withdrawal!
3. The conclusions from the results, and the numerous personal conversations with the polled Palestinians, are:
* A full Israeli withdrawal fm the Golan would substantially weaken Israel's opposition to a full withdrawal in Judea&Samaria.
* Radicalized Palestinian demands would trigger acceleration of terrorism.
* The Barak's policy of Lebanon-Golan Linkage has been interpreted, by Palestinians, as a serious case of Battle Fatigue: The Israeli PM cannot take the heat in Lebanon. Rather than combat Hizballhah terrorism, so goes the Palestinian interpretation, Barak hopes that a Golan Giveaway would accord him an end to terror. In fact, a full withdrawal from the Golan would be interpreted as a REWARD TO TERRORISM, intensifying Palestinian terrorism. A significant Israeli withdrawal from the Golan would be interpreted as a sign of weakness on the part of Israel, running away from terror in Lebanon. Such an interpretation would lead to the escalation of terror in other areas in order to drive Israel away!
* A full Israeli withdrawal fm the Golan would lead to an exacerbated pressure, on Israel, by the international community, including the US Administration!
4. Inquiring about the findings of Dr. Aharon Fein, in order to establish the validity of the Battle Fatigue image of Israel, I received the following SOLID information:
Israel's own intelligence has conducted a similar study of the Palestinian reaction to a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. The results, AND THE CONCLUSIONS, were identical to those of Dr. Fein! The intelligence findings were submitted to Minister of Defense, Barak, who has dismissed it!!!
Hang Tough, Yoram